There's a disconnection between understanding of what "value" is, or how to decide what is "investment" and what is "speculation". It's not binary, it's a spectrum. It's not universal, it's relative. It's relative to YOU, specifically YOU. It's not constant, it's relative to price and other opportunity. Lastly, it's not guaranteed. Ever. The future is unknown. You or I might not even be here for it.
Every person reading this knows some things I don't know, and every person doesn't know some things I do. Unless you are a literate dog, we probably share some qualities. In fact, even if you are a dog, literate or otherwise, we share some qualities and no small amount of identical language in our DNA. Dogs love steaks, and fresh air. Both things I like quite a bit too. But I enjoy looking for undervalued stocks, and dogs seem more interested in fetching tennis balls. We're both animals, but we're not the same animal.
To go back to GME and the toad's wild ride one more time this week, I can promise you I looked at some of the same numbers that
DeepFuckingValue looked at 2 years ago. Lots of people did. I looked at gamestop in 2019, a few times in fact.
I passed. DeepFuckingValue didn't. We were both right. DeepFuckingValue looked at the company a year or two years back, and evaluated the numbers and the situation, and understood that a lot of short sellers were counting on this company to fold in the very near future. He probably also noticed that more and more short sellers seemed to be jumping on this bandwagon. He knew the situation wasn't nearly that dire. In fact it was likely to be "game on" for Gamestop, for quite a while to come. I got puns all night, so buckle up. Then he looked at the share price, understood the proposition and probability that this was a potentially very asymmetric opportunity (low probability, enormous return, mispriced very cheaply in relation to the potential return). I looked at the same things, but he got from the situation contextual understanding I didn't get. Namely the magnitude to which shorts can backfire and how to estimate it.
I also recognized, back in 2019, Gamestop was probably not in as dire straights as predicted. I wasn't alone, or special in this. Lots of people, including some famous people, recognized it. Michael Burry. Ryan Cohen. That one guy from the internet. I knew about the gaming console cycle too. I looked over the balance sheet. I got that piece of the puzzle, lots of us did. What I didn't understand very well at all was how short selling squeezes worked in practice, or just as importantly how to value the proposition. I still don't understand that with any genuine confidence, but I do get it more now than I did. Doesn't matter. I didn't get it, it was too confusing for me. So I passed. I said No.
People who "get it" get this concept.
Two people can do opposite things for different reasons, and both be right. It's relative to you, your understanding, your tolerance for what talking heads often confuse with risk. Your tolerance for volatility. He understood the proposition, evaluated what he was PAYING for what he was GETTING (in this case not just the companies liquidation value backstop, but the potential possibilities of the price appreciation he could be getting - this eventual squeeze), knew himself well enough to decide if he could stomach the roller coaster, and chose to get on the ride.
I'm genuinely happy for this guy, and everybody else on these message boards in that rocket or just popcorning along in the theatre. I'm also happy for myself, because even though I didn't have any money stake in GME I understand more about how short selling and squeezes work than I did just a week ago. I got a free option on education.
The ups and downs are not risk. Volatility is not risk. Here's where we get vague, because this GME story isn't over. It's only gotten started. This has implications for the broader market. Follow me into the fog of tomorrow, will you?
Even the smartest, brightest people taking this bet 1 or 2 years ago had to contend with a lot of fog. It's not gone. Certainly the picture is MORE clear now than it was last year, but things are still REALLY FOGGY. More foggy for some of us than others. What we're witnessing now is why you cannot apply mathematics to complex systems (especially systems involving people) and expect everything to go as modeled. We don't have all the rules. This isn't chess, it's life. People cheat, bend the rules, propagandize, lobby, sue, counter-sue, weaponize fear and do everything in their capacity to get an advantage, up to and including breaking the law. Life isn't chess, it's poker. But it's way more complicated than a game of hold em. It's poker with 10,000 players at your table and a deck of 2.6 million cards, and a roof that might cave in once in a while and kill some of the people at the table, and one of the waiters serving drinks, and maybe the general mood in the room. Also someone who loses might pull out a gun and shoot the dealer. We cannot know all the things that might happen. But if you're in the casino we call earth, some of these events could affect you. I'm long on humans going to Mars, or Europa, or The Restaurant at the End of the Universe. God rest your soul, Douglas Adams.
This is why the proposition that the early birds took, people like
DeepFuckingValue, is nothing whatsoever the same as the proposition that exists right now. Even if you and I have the same understanding of the proposition he took 2 years ago, and understand why it makes sense, it's not the same proposition that exists now. He bought in at I don't know what, $2 or $5/share. Some long dated options that cost a few pennies. People buying in now are paying $100, $200, $400/share. Refusing to pay too much is your biggest defense against being stupid. Don't be stupid.
If you're a fan of that Stranger Things show, you probably recognize that theme. "Don't be stupid." "We're not stupid." In that case, we have something else in common. I love that show. There's a beautiful scene in that show where the adopted dad Hopper is trying to explain to this orphaned, frustrated teenager Eleven why she can't go outside. It's not safe. The risk is too high. Dangerous people are after you, and they aren't playing by the rules. Hopper and Eleven are arguing and bickering about this, and neither can see the other person's side. They are both right, for different reasons.
This is a fictional show, and she is an extraordinarily powerful telekinetic. She can move stuff with her mind. Violently. The government scientists who raised her and trained this ability are after her. Hopper doesn't understand this yet. She can rip people in half with a willful thought.
She's not in danger.
Except she is. There are things she doesn't get. Weaknesses she hasn't accounted for. She's got this great little group of friends, and they aren't superheroes. They've got families. Real people she cares about, who are regular people and definitely can be hurt. This is what Hopper is trying to get across. He's got experience, he's lost people. He knows. She thinks he's just an old grumpy boomer and he thinks she's just an emotional child. But they're talking past each other, and as teenagers are wont to do, rash decisions are made and things get out of hand. People die.
This has so many parallels with what's going on in Gamestop (and the markets broadly) recently. People, "the bad guys", are not playing by the rules. Other people, "the good guys", did not account for this ratfuckery. Now there's a tug of war. In the media, the courts, the SEC, congress, even in the public square of reddit and twitter. The proposition that
was when
DeepFuckingValue and company investigated it 2 years ago is not the proposition that
is today. Even if it was the same situation, he and I came to different conclusions for different reasons because he understood it and I did not.
If you want to be an investor, you've got to learn to say NO, and not because "the other guy is wrong". You say NO because you don't understand how to value what is being offered confidently, or you do understand it and you see risks in the proposition that make the price unattractive or this particular proposition untenable for your temperament. Just like anything else in life, be it dating, job offers, or nigerian prince's who just need a little help with an inheritance scheme, successful people learn to say No to almost everything. The most successful people learn to say No so gracefully the rejected party leaves feeling good about getting rejected.
Investing is saying No to offers you don't understand and requiring a bargain price. Speculation is everything else. At
/ValueInvesting,
We're not stupid. Corrected: The girls name is Eleven, not Seven. Fixed, Thanks
jelledm submitted by In the most recent
Lore Builder, CIG mentioned a fictional card game called Trigger and has asked the community for lore to flesh this out. Well, I went a step further (as I often do; some would say too far) and made a whole game and would like some feedback on it.
First, let me tell you my goals. I wanted a game that
- Worked with the existing fiction. Based on the brief mentions, people were both playing the game casually and some people were upset over. Thus, Trigger seemed to be in the vein of a casual betting driven card game (Poker being the optimal example). So, the first constraint had to be many opportunities to bet and bluff.
- Is open to spectators. Traditional Poker is kinda boring if you don't know the player’s hands. Texas hold'em is more exciting due to the open cards on the table and the many betting rounds. So, I decided the cards need to be drawn out and open played.
- Is nothing like Poker in actual play so the game did devolve into or get compared to it. So, I said no matching and instead chose a trump-style game.
- Can be played by fans at events and such. To make this easy, I decided to use a regular card deck that everyone has access to and CIG already conveniently sells (only $10!).
Thus, after some quick brainstorming and play testing with friends, I’ve come up with the following:
BASE RULES:
- Trigger is a card game played with a traditional Earth deck of 52 cards (no Jokers)
- Each player starts with a hand of 7 cards and there are a max of 4 players
- Each player is randomly given a suit at the beginning of the game This is usually determined by separate card draw, but some regular groups simply have a favorite suit they always use. You can also see players using a special 4-sided die or 'trigger tables' that have the suit determined by the OptiGlass table top. (for more picking options and equipment, see below)
- Players play out their hands one card at a time in clock-wise order (starting left of the dealer). The first card is drawn off the top of the reserve deck and then the first player plays. Dealer position rotates to the left each hand (just like most Poker).
- On each play, the player lays down a card next to or on top of the last card played, forming a line (which wraps if there is no room)
- If your card you play is greater than the value of last card, you override the value by placing it on top
- If your card is equal or lower in value to the last card, you start a new stack and the previous stack is finished (cannot be overridden)
- On your turn (and only your turn), you may optionally raise the bid once before you play. Other players cannot raise in response. Only meet or fold.
- Players can fold at any time, surrendering an opportunity at the pot
- Face cards are valued based on normal suit order (Jack 11, Queen 12, King 13). Aces are Low / valued at 1. NOTE: This was changed after play testing. The original rule is now the Heavy G variant.
- After all cards are played, the player with the suit with the most cards showing (on the top of the stacks) wins.
- Ties are resolved with a split pot (or, optionally, murder and mayhem).
I also made a video to demo the gameplay: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wEiN23eaVs RULE VARIANTS:
The Verse is a big place and there are lots of Trigger variants. Here's a few (I'll add more as I find them in my travels :) )
- Mad Messer: remove all the face cards from the deck except the King. This variant was invented by Terran separatists toward the end of Imperator Messer XI's reign.
- Glaive: 2 player version were each player controls 2 suits. The most popular 2 player option.
- The Two Faced Banu (aka Double Burn when in polite company): Aces have the value of Low / 1 when played as a new stack and High / 14 when trumping.
- Tin Foot's Fortune (aka Billy's Bluff): Lowest scoring suit wins. Named for Tin Foot Billy, a notoriously inept pirate.
- Dump N'Drift: Players can discard and redraw up to 3 cards before play begins
- Europa Moon (aka e-moon): A popular variant where all the cards are dealt out (12-13 per player, depending on if you use 2s as markers). Betting is usually not allow during play in e-moon (ante only if any) and it is found more often in less risk-averse settings. You'll likely get made fun of for suggesting this variant in a bar setting.
- Murray Shot: 2 player variant where one suit is removed from the deck (named for a short cut in the 2940 Murray Cup made famous by the racer Tri'Kilavi)
- Heavy G: All face cards are valued at 10. Note: This makes the game more tense and betting focused. One bar on Ruin station has a rule that all Trigger games must use this variant (enforcement is ... lethal)
- The Dirty Advocate: whenever a King is played, a new stack is immediately started by drawing off the reserve deck. Note: we found this variant added an extra edge of uncertainty/ fun in play testing.
- The Last Laugh: Kings can be played as normal or played on top of other Kings. Kings that trump other Kings do not count as points. Instead they cause stacks to 'flip' (turn them over) counting as no points. (thanks Laughingstok)
- Snow Job: Jokers cause a stack to flip and count as no points. (thanks SnowCrash / Zoenobium)
- Zip: >4 player team variant. Requires an even number of players and extra decks (1 deck for each 2-4 player addition). Randomly determine suits with 2 players playing each suit (e.g. only use 3 suits for 6 players with the 4th suit either being non-player / non-scoring or pruned). Suit assignments can be static (Stuck Zip), rotate right each hand (Back Zip), or are randomly assigned each hand (Broke Zip). Zip games are likely ante only (no active betting to keep teams from raising each other). (thanks ZippityD and Zoenobium)
CASINO PLAY
Trigger is traditionally and primarily a Player vs Player game that is played casually or tournament style. That said, a casino variant of the game has been becoming increasingly popular over the last decade. It is not uncommon to see a "Kit Trigger" table or automated machine in the many casinos of Goss.
KIT TRIGGER RULES:
- Player(s) antes
- The Dealer draws a 9 card hand to themselves, all facing down
- The Dealer flips over 5 cards, one at a time in order, playing the cards per the base rules of Trigger (only order and value affect placement)
- The Dealer draws 5 cards off the stack and plays them in front of player(s), one at a time in order. Again, Card behavior is purely based on value and order drawn per the base Trigger rules
- The highest number of points of any suit is the Player’s score
- The Player can double their bet for an optional 2 cards
- The Dealer flips / plays the remaining 4 cards in their hand, one at a time in order
- Highest score wins (Player vs. House). Ties are a push in most establishments
DESIGNER NOTE: This is just an initial proposal for this type of play. Like the base game, I think it has merit, but it needs some statistical massage. I’m not sure if 2 cards is a big House advantage or not. So, as before, this all comes with a Work In Progress qualifier.
TOURNAMENT PLAY
I've seen a good number of suggestions for >4 player play options. If you have an even number of players with a flat bet, check out the Zip variant. If you have an odd number or you want more betting friendly large group play, I've created a Hold'Em style variant with it's own lore.
5TRI RULES:
5TRI is a tournament style variant of Trigger meant for larger groups of players. Think “Texas Hold’em” where a larger group plays with a shared group of cards.
- 5Tri starts with each player being dealt 5 cards
- The table is dealt 8 cards face down
- One round of betting
- 2 cards are flipped and played one at a time from the tables deal
- Cards from the table are played only as value, in order (see Kit Trigger)
- After the play, another round of betting and the process repeats
- Once all 8 are played, one final round of betting before players play
- Players play all their cards, one at a time, ‘against’ the table’s stacks. The order of card play is player determined, but is unchangeable once laid on the table. “New” stacks are bumped to the next stack where they trump or get bumped again (Aces immediately go to end). This means that if the table has shows a 3, K, 6, 4 and the player plays a 10, 7, 3, A, J (order matters), the resulting hand would be a 10, K, 7, 4, 3, J
- Players play in lines ‘below’ the table line to keep their cards separate. Trumping cards are played directly below the cards they trump.
- The player with the most points generated in any suit (like Kit Trigger) wins the pot. Ties split the pot.
DESIGNER NOTES: Again, as with Kit Trigger, I haven’t done any statistical analysis here. The 5 and 8 card counts are simply off the top of my head. I’ll likely be scripting up some sort of model for this stuff at some point to see if I can optimize these values.
And then I fleshed out the lore that fit with the game rules
ADDITIONAL EQUIPMENT and CHEATING:
I expect most 'honest' games happen on a OptiGlass table that detects the cards being played, handles the betting, and the final payout. Players either use smart cards that just track their locations or AR augmented cards that appear blank until played (to prevent looking over shoulders). AR card values can be seen by the individual players using MobiGlass monocles. Professional players typically have optical implants with encrypted CardLinks to insure the most secure experience.
Backwater games likely use non-monetary bets and all physical mechanisms. Cheating is possible in said crude environments, but, since OptiGlass tables track the cards, sleeve stuffing is ruled out in most honest establishments. That said, dishonest gambling establishments have been known to hack the tables to allow house players an advantage.
ORIGIN:
Popular belief is that the name "Trigger" refers to the creation of the new stacks in the game. As in "pulling the trigger" when trumping a stack or stealing a win.
In actuality, the game's name has nothing to do with the game's play. Trigger was the callsign of a human backwater smuggler named Elitimi Pfuntner, who is credited as the game's inventor and most notorious player. Trigger spent the majority of her free time in the bars of Pyro's Ruin Station gambling away any money she earned, but her audacious personality alcohol fueled antics insured the game was played a lot on that particular station and slowly spread around the 'Verse via both traders and pirates.
Modern anthropology scholars believe that the Trigger card game is based on a much simplified version of the ancient Teverin game of Chil'a Cohook (roughly translated as "battle simulation of opponents supply lines and defeat through deception for great honor"). Colloquially known as Chill, the game revolves around placing tiles in a line (not too dissimilar from Trigger's card play with more tiles and a variety of special conditions) and then using the points gained each hand to move a complex chess-like set of pieces on a hexagonal board (which, in turn, gave advantages in the tile play). Additional tiles are used around the play board to denote battle phases, moral, field conditions, etc.
This modern anthropological consensus is rooted in the fact that very similar games have been invented prior to Trigger in environments of mixed Teverin-Human cohabitation. Thus, the game of Trigger can be called many names, depending on the station / planet you are on: Bad Jump, Pipper, Hu'sic, and Soso Chill to name a few. Regardless, the name Trigger is now known universally for those looking for a game.
Several other modern games have been derived from Chill's sub-components including games such as Gunner's Run, Drop and Dash, and Trapman. That said, Trigger is the most popular of the Chill derivatives by far.
KIT TRIGGER LORE:
Kit Trigger is named for and popularized by the bounty hunter come casino entrepreneur Katherine Lyra. Known to many in the hunter's guild as D1rty K1tty, Ms. Lyra created Kit Trigger with opening of her first small gambling establishment on Terra in 2930. Originally called simply D1rty K1tty's Trigger, the game's name has been shorten (and classed up) as her casino empire has grown.
Ms. Lyra is publicly vocal in her opinion that she should own exclusive rights to the use of the game in casinos, but has been unable to prove her position in court. Thus, after a handful of unsuccessful lawsuits (on Terra) in 2941, many casinos and software vendors have started capitalizing on the game's relatively open intellectual property status and greatly increased its popularity and availability.
5TRI LORE:
In 2937, the Goss Conglomerated Gambling corporation decided to revitalize their gambling tournament entertainment division around Spectrum broadcast Trigger matches. While already popular, Trigger was trending relatively flat in viewership over the previous three broadcast seasons. Their initial effort to make Kit Trigger watchable failed when they were sued by Kat Lyra (a suit they eventually won years latter).
In response to this set back, the GCG decided to create and market their own brand of Trigger-based games entertainment. After a couple failed marketing ploys (Trigger n’Sauce and WaterTriggers) they happened upon on a tournament variant played by some UEEN carrier squadrons. Named after the 5th Marine detachment, the Trigger variant’s deeper origins are murky (it had been around longer than anyone could remember) and the game was relatively unknown outside military circles.
Regardless, during the 2938 Spectrum Gambling broadcast season, 5TRI became a huge success among viewers and the popularity has been spreading regularly ever since.
I WOULD LOVE SOME FEEDBACK :) Finally, here’s a link to the RSI forum thread I’m collecting everything in and documenting my playtesting and continued lore building:
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